Matching-adjusted indirect comparison

Plots for MAIC, anchored and unanchored

MAIC reweights individual patient data from one trial so that selected covariate moments match those published for a comparator trial, then compares weighted outcomes. Exact matching of the chosen means is a consequence of the weighting algorithm, so a good-looking balance plot proves little. The informative graphics describe the weights: how extreme they are, how much effective sample size survives, and whether the populations overlap.

Minimum graphical set

All plots for MAIC

Effect display

Estimates, intervals, and pooled summaries: the forest plot and its many descendants.

Forest plot
Study estimates and confidence intervals on a common effect scale, with the pooled estimate drawn as a diamond.
MANMAITCMAICSTC
Anchored indirect comparison diagram
Two trials sharing a common comparator and the indirect estimate derived from them, drawn as a network sketch beside a forest plot.
ITCMAICSTC
Method-comparison forest plot
The same treatment comparison estimated by several indirect comparison methods, stacked as forest rows, often against a known truth.
ITCMAICSTCML-NMRNMIML-UMR

Weighting, balance, and overlap

MAIC diagnostics: what the weights did, how much information survived, and whether populations overlap.

Love plot
Standardized differences between the IPD and the comparator population for each covariate, before and after weighting.
MAICSTCML-NMRNMIML-UMR
Weighted covariate distribution plot
The distribution of a covariate in the IPD before and after weighting, against the distribution assumed for the comparator population.
MAIC
Trial-membership score overlap plot
Distributions of the estimated probability of belonging to one trial, drawn separately for each trial, to assess common support.
MAICSTCML-NMR
Weight distribution histogram
Distribution of MAIC weights across IPD participants, exposing extreme weights and loss of effective sample size.
MAIC
Weight concentration curve
The cumulative share of total weight against the cumulative share of participants, showing how few patients carry the weighted analysis.
MAIC
Effective sample size plot
Effective sample size after weighting, compared with the original sample size across weighting models or scenarios.
MAIC
Weight versus covariate plot
MAIC weights plotted against a key covariate, revealing which regions of the IPD drive the weighted analysis.
MAIC
Multivariate support plot
IPD participants projected onto principal components with their convex hull, and target population means projected into the same space.
MAICSTCML-NMRML-UMR
Bootstrap distribution plot
The distribution of the weighted estimate and of the effective sample size across bootstrap resamples with re-estimated weights.
MAICSTC

Outcome regression and transportability

STC and G-computation diagnostics: functional form, extrapolation, and effects in a target population.

Conditional versus marginal effect plot
How the marginal odds ratio drifts away from a fixed conditional odds ratio as a prognostic covariate becomes stronger.
STCML-NMRML-UMRMAIC

Unanchored multilevel meta-regression

ML-UMR graphics for disconnected evidence, where prognostic modeling carries the whole comparison.

Assumption sensitivity plot
The same unanchored treatment effect under increasingly flexible assumptions and priors, stacked to show how much the answer depends on untestable choices.
ML-UMRMAICSTCML-NMR

Survival and time-to-event

Kaplan-Meier displays, proportional hazards checks, and time-varying effects across ITC methods.

Weighted Kaplan-Meier plot
Kaplan-Meier curves for the IPD treatment before and after MAIC weighting, against the comparator's reconstructed curve.
MAIC
Fitted survival curves with Kaplan-Meier overlay
Survival curves predicted by a parametric NMA or ML-NMR model, overlaid on each study's observed Kaplan-Meier curves.
NMAML-NMRSTCMAICML-UMR
Proportional hazards diagnostic plots
Log cumulative hazard against log time and scaled Schoenfeld residuals over time, before and after weighting, to check proportional hazards.
MANMAMAICSTC
Kaplan-Meier reconstruction check
A published Kaplan-Meier curve overlaid with the curve rebuilt from reconstructed pseudo-IPD, to validate the reconstruction.
MAICSTCML-NMRML-UMRNMA

Simulation and method evaluation

Graphics from the proof-of-concept literature that evaluates methods under known truth.

Nested loop plot
Performance of several methods across every scenario of a factorial simulation study, with scenarios ordered in nested loops and their factor levels drawn underneath.
MAICSTCML-NMRNMIML-UMR
Simulation performance plot
A performance measure for each method and scenario of a simulation study, with Monte Carlo uncertainty intervals.
MANMAMAICSTCML-NMRNMIML-UMR
Zip plot
Every replication's confidence interval, ranked by how far its estimate lies from the truth, showing which intervals fail to cover.
MANMAMAICSTCML-NMRNMIML-UMR

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