Identification, transitivity & conditional constancy

20 open problems

The assumptions that make an indirect comparison mean anything, written as causal restrictions rather than slogans.

ID Problem Priority Verdict Maturity prank
IDN-01 Transitivity and conditional constancy cannot be tested in-sample Very high Partially addressed Promising 1
IDN-02 No assumption map spans identification, transport and consistency Very high Overstated Emerging 1
IDN-03 No procedure shows an unanchored adjustment set is complete Very high Partially addressed Established 1
IDN-04 Recorded-covariate adjustment cannot remove unmeasured modifier bias Very high Confirmed open Emerging 1
IDN-05 The shared effect modifier check has low and uncalibrated power Very high Overstated Promising 1
IDN-06 ML-NMR interactions can rest solely on aggregate-data variation Very high Partially addressed Promising 1
IDN-07 No agreed criterion for when a held-out-trial discrepancy falsifies Very high Unverifiable Promising 1
IDN-08 No curated benchmark validates bridged cross-gap comparisons Very high Overstated Promising 1
IDN-09 Negative controls for ITC lack catalogues, power and calibration Very high Overstated Promising 1
IDN-10 Transported control-arm outcomes are uncalibrated where it matters Very high Partially addressed Promising 1
IDN-14 Identification, estimation, computation and decision are conflated Very high Partially addressed Established 1
IDN-17 No criterion for discarding a present but non-exchangeable anchor Very high Confirmed open Emerging 1
IDN-11 Trial-engagement effects are mistaken for prognostic imbalance High Partially addressed Emerging 2
IDN-12 Five mechanisms of cross-study effect variation are lumped together High Partially addressed Emerging 2
IDN-13 Time, geography and setting are confounded in non-crossed evidence High Confirmed open Emerging 2
IDN-15 Global inconsistency diagnostics lack calibrated operating characteristics High Partially addressed Promising 2
IDN-18 No estimand or correction for randomized-withdrawal anchors High Confirmed open Emerging 2
IDN-19 No principled basis for shared effect-modifier treatment classes High Confirmed open Promising 2
IDN-16 Covariate-indexed consistency has no calibrated licensed region Medium-high Confirmed open Emerging 3
IDN-20 No synthesis framework for treatment-specific eligibility patterns Medium-high Confirmed open Emerging 3
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