Heterogeneity, consistency & multi-arm structure

21 open problems

Residual clinical and design heterogeneity, variance structure, population-specific inconsistency, and the covariance that pairwise adjustment discards.

ID Problem Priority Verdict Maturity prank
HET-01 Design and conduct differences survive baseline covariate balancing Very high Overstated Promising 1
HET-02 Multi-arm covariance is lost when contrasts are adjusted pairwise High Overstated Promising 2
HET-03 Single shared heterogeneity variance across classes and populations High Partially addressed Promising 2
HET-04 Node splitting compares paths without standardizing to a target High Partially addressed Emerging 2
HET-06 Diagnostic-driven study deletion in NMA lacks a calibrated rule High Partially addressed Promising 2
HET-07 Heterogeneity structure is undefined for multi-parameter survival NMA High Partially addressed Promising 2
HET-08 Inconsistency conclusions depend on an uncalibrated heterogeneity error specification High Confirmed open Established 2
HET-10 No calibrated small-study interval method for population-adjusted NMA High Partially addressed Promising 2
HET-11 No covariance correction for overlapping reported subgroups High Confirmed open Emerging 2
HET-15 Composite comparator nodes are collapsed rather than modeled as reported mixtures High Confirmed open Emerging 2
HET-17 Heterogeneity has no principled place in a sequential or living NMA boundary High Confirmed open Emerging 2
HET-20 The design-by-treatment inconsistency test has no small-sample null High Confirmed open Established 2
HET-21 Multivariate synthesis needs within-study correlations that publications do not report High Partially addressed Promising 2
HET-05 Additive and multiplicative heterogeneity models have not been compared in NMA Medium-high Confirmed open Promising 3
HET-09 Multivariate NMA inconsistency covariance is unidentifiable in sparse networks Medium-high Confirmed open Emerging 3
HET-12 No empirical prior exists for residual heterogeneity after covariate adjustment Medium-high Confirmed open Promising 3
HET-13 No corpus-derived prior distributions exist for the NMA inconsistency variance Medium-high Confirmed open Promising 3
HET-14 No evidence base or reporting rule governs the heterogeneity versus inconsistency split Medium-high Partially addressed Established 3
HET-16 Exchangeable and comparison-specific heterogeneity priors are blocked by the covariance constraint Medium-high Confirmed open Promising 3
HET-18 Arm-based between-treatment correlations are imposed as exchangeable with no way to test or vary the structure Medium-high Confirmed open Promising 3
HET-19 Node splitting reports one arbitrary member of a family of multi-arm parameterizations Medium-high Confirmed open Established 3
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