Estimands & target populations

16 open problems

What exactly is being estimated, for which population, on which scale — and the second transport step that usually goes unnamed.

ID Problem Priority Verdict Maturity prank
EST-01 Target population is unnamed and set by data availability Very high Overstated Emerging 1
EST-02 Anchored PAIC needs a second transport to the decision population Very high Partially addressed Emerging 1
EST-03 Non-collapsible marginal effects are not portable across populations Very high Partially addressed Promising 1
EST-04 Methods return incompatible marginal and conditional estimands Very high Partially addressed Promising 1
EST-05 Nothing requires declaring whether a result is marginal or conditional Very high Overstated Promising 1
EST-06 The MAIC paradox: swapping the IPD trial can reverse the comparison Very high Partially addressed Emerging 1
EST-07 Reported target moments are treated as known constants Very high Partially addressed Promising 1
EST-08 Effect scales chosen by convention rather than transportability Very high Overstated Promising 1
EST-10 Bucher ITC and aggregate-data NMA name no target population Very high Partially addressed Established 1
EST-15 No bound for effect-measure non-transitivity in anchored survival comparisons Very high Confirmed open Promising 1
EST-09 No convention for reading divergence between estimand rungs High Partially addressed Emerging 2
EST-11 No simulation crosses target choice with second-stage transport error High Overstated Emerging 2
EST-12 Treatment hierarchies lack a declared target-population referent High Confirmed open Promising 2
EST-16 Synthetic-patient indirect comparisons lack a validation standard High Confirmed open Emerging 2
EST-13 Network intervals condition on plugged-in variance components Medium-high Partially addressed Promising 3
EST-14 Model-performance NMA lacks a target case-mix estimand Medium-high Confirmed open Emerging 3
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