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Data setup

Assemble the index IPD and comparator AgD into one mlumr_data object and build the quasi-Monte Carlo integration points for population adjustment.

set_ipd()
Set up individual patient data (IPD)
set_agd()
Set up aggregate data (AgD)
set_agd_surv()
Set up aggregate survival data (reconstructed pseudo-IPD)
combine_data()
Combine IPD and AgD for unanchored comparison
add_integration()
Add numerical integration points
check_integration()
Check integration point adequacy
check_identification()
Can the aggregate data identify the comparator coefficients?
unnest_integration()
Expand integration points into a long-format data frame
make_knots()
Choose M-spline knots for a flexible-baseline survival model

Covariate distributions

Marginal-distribution helpers for the comparator integration points.

distr()
Specify a marginal distribution
qbern()
Bernoulli quantile function
pbern()
Bernoulli CDF
dbern()
Bernoulli PMF
qgamma() pgamma() dgamma()
The Gamma distribution, parameterized by mean and standard deviation
dlogitnorm() plogitnorm() qlogitnorm()
The logit-Normal distribution

Model fitting

Fit the Bayesian ML-UMR model (SPFA / relaxed) and select the Stan backend.

mlumr()
Fit ML-UMR Model
mlumr_engine()
Get or set the Stan engine

Priors

Prior constructors, the prior summary, and prior-sensitivity analysis.

prior_normal()
Specify a normal prior
prior_student_t()
Specify a Student-t prior
prior_cauchy()
Specify a Cauchy prior
prior_exponential()
Specify an exponential prior
prior_summary()
Summary of priors used by a fitted ML-UMR model
prior_sensitivity()
Prior sensitivity analysis for an ML-UMR fit
default_prior_intercept() default_prior_beta() default_prior_sigma() default_prior_aux() default_prior_smooth()
Default priors used by mlumr()

Treatment effects and predictions

Population-standardized effects and absolute predictions in either population.

marginal_effects()
Marginal treatment effects
conditional_effects()
Conditional treatment effects
predict(<mlumr_fit>)
Predictions from ML-UMR model
conditional_predict()
Conditional predictions

Frequentist benchmarks

Unadjusted (naive) and simulated-treatment-comparison (STC) reference estimators.

naive()
Naive unadjusted indirect comparison
stc()
Simulated treatment comparison via G-computation

Model comparison and diagnostics

Compare SPFA against relaxed, and the information criteria behind it.

check_diagnostics()
Check the sampler diagnostics of a fit
compare_models()
Compare fitted ML-UMR models
calculate_dic()
Calculate DIC for model comparison
calculate_loo()
Calculate LOO-CV for an mlumr_fit
calculate_waic()
Calculate WAIC for an mlumr_fit

Plots

The plot() methods, the Kaplan-Meier overlay, the method-comparison forest, and the prior-versus-posterior overlay.

plot(<mlumr_prediction>)
Plot absolute predictions from a fitted ML-UMR model
plot(<mlumr_marginal_effects>)
Forest plot of population-standardized marginal effects
plot(<mlumr_conditional_effects>)
Plot covariate-conditional treatment effects
geom_km()
Observed Kaplan-Meier layer for survival overlays
mlumr_forest()
Forest plot of a small set of estimates
plot_prior_posterior()
Prior-versus-posterior overlay

Example datasets

Bundled index IPD and comparator AgD for the worked examples, one pair per outcome family (binary, continuous, count, survival).

psoriasis_ipd
Plaque psoriasis: index individual patient data (binary)
psoriasis_agd
Plaque psoriasis: comparator aggregate data (binary)
shoulder_ipd
Shoulder pain: simulated index IPD (continuous)
shoulder_agd
Shoulder pain: simulated comparator aggregate data (continuous)
caries_ipd
Dental caries: simulated index IPD (count)
caries_agd
Dental caries: simulated comparator aggregate data (count)
ndmm_ipd
Newly diagnosed multiple myeloma: index individual patient data (survival)
ndmm_agd
Newly diagnosed multiple myeloma: comparator pseudo-IPD (survival)
ndmm_agd_covs
Newly diagnosed multiple myeloma: comparator covariate summaries (survival)